Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 14.403170 17.551155 21.044201 25.182796 29.926729 35.168971 41.373381
2025-11-09 9.819731 13.855939 18.829062 25.296989 33.369286 42.992128 55.201362
2025-11-16 7.182110 11.448126 17.167125 25.155926 35.767403 49.110476 66.859227
2025-11-23 5.289508 9.457467 15.493913 24.472377 37.045208 53.563402 76.383557
2025-11-30 4.331592 8.549814 15.068394 25.269500 40.159852 60.391960 89.149572
2025-12-07 3.356787 7.362234 13.983756 24.889783 41.470127 64.737460 98.708938
2025-12-14 2.727598 6.599714 13.405373 25.131423 43.593037 70.215198 109.961068
2025-12-21 2.021281 5.498559 12.061043 23.956436 43.418445 72.319333 116.502079
2025-12-28 1.706231 5.095799 11.856130 24.587844 46.017002 78.523950 129.070133
2026-01-04 1.410948 4.650654 11.490796 24.877532 48.047929 83.931807 140.647826
2026-01-11 1.185413 4.301448 11.246601 25.332120 50.340918 89.800029 153.080685
2026-01-18 1.017631 4.046848 11.147445 26.022706 53.042444 96.382374 166.778676
2026-01-25 0.785418 3.550833 10.493315 25.676571 54.087206 100.634419 177.479699
2026-02-01 0.624890 3.201552 10.102822 25.803649 55.978888 106.356710 190.723925
2026-02-08 0.483724 2.843725 9.614821 25.661098 57.348479 111.258143 202.831030
2026-02-15 0.351839 2.437195 8.911349 24.966932 57.625801 114.328633 212.116260
2026-02-22 0.297020 2.311082 8.909848 25.776484 60.756147 122.291394 229.448901
2026-03-01 0.219710 2.024722 8.402196 25.390859 61.554199 126.294522 240.490910
2026-03-08 0.173135 1.853709 8.184692 25.636262 63.581845 132.476617 255.255254
2026-03-15 0.112425 1.528521 7.406216 24.442904 62.637764 133.391712 261.327275
2026-03-22 0.091765 1.443843 7.380672 25.084208 65.454920 141.069609 278.881584
2026-03-29 0.070966 1.329932 7.226232 25.378417 67.560288 147.532427 294.554652
2026-04-05 0.055862 1.241960 7.141428 25.840076 70.037344 154.745852 311.681297